{"id":3678,"date":"2013-02-04T09:56:43","date_gmt":"2013-02-04T01:56:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/?p=3678"},"modified":"2013-02-04T09:56:43","modified_gmt":"2013-02-04T01:56:43","slug":"rising-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/rising-storm\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising Storm"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sabah\u2019s penchant for political change in the past has not been lost on the observers. The slew of negative news for BN from the state lately has pundits busy predicting the casualties for BN here in the next general elections and its implication for nationwide political scenario. How many seats are in play here? Will their fall usher in the victory storm in PR\u2019s favour?<\/em><\/p>\n

CM Liability <\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>With the crossovers of two BN backbench Members of Parliament to being PR-friendly and encouraging turnouts in PR ceramahs across Sabah, has the wind of change come to Sabah?<\/p>\n

Opinion polls conducted in September seem to indicate this trend. BN\u2019s popularity amongst the Sabah people dropped by 12 percent to 54 percent from 2009\u2019s 66 percent, with the biggest drop coming from the Muslim Bumiputera category, BN\u2019s support base in Sabah.<\/p>\n

In addition, Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Musa Aman\u2019s popularity also took a plunge, dropping 15 percent in 2012. In fact his popularity is below that of his party, 45 percent compared to 54 percent.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a sign of concern for UMNO\u2019s leadership, as Musa is becoming a liability to BN. In fact, he is increasingly being likened to Taib Mahmud who stands for corrupt leadership in Sarawak. The spate of news on his alleged corruption is giving the news mill plenty of fodder,\u201d Jimmy Wong said.<\/p>\n

Electoral Schism and PATIs<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sabah has a history of seesawing power structure between the non-Muslim and Muslim natives that has seen several change of state governments. However its inherent instinct for political change is now being subverted and thwarted by the presence of the huge number of illegal immigrant (PATI) voters, whether \u2018legal\u2019 or phantom.<\/p>\n

Dr Edwin Bosi explains why the previously politically dominant Kadazan-Dusun-Murut (KDM) and Chinese communities are ruing for political change this time.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe KDMs were in the position of power in the previous state governments\u2019 tenure. Together with the Chinese, they were able to control the state government. The BN federal government realised it didn\u2019t have the numbers to control the KDM and Chinese communities\u2019 voting directions.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAs a result, many illegal immigrants (PATIs) were brought in and recruited as citizens and voters to subdue the influence of the Chinese and KDMs.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe sidelining of the KDM residents in the civil service and government projects that began in 1994 is affecting their livelihood. The appointment of Peninsular Malaysians to important federal department posts in Sabah is causing further friction,\u201d Bosi elaborated.<\/p>\n

Chan offers a different view. \u201cOften political parties from both sides of the fence had played up the racial card to win the votes. BN has exploited this successfully and kept power the last 18 years.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIn order to overcome the KDM and Muslim native\u2019s zero-sum game mentality, PR\u2019s task is to communicate that it is only with good and fair governance instituted at all levels that every communities will benefit and not be sidelined. Hence this is why PR\u2019s Buku Jingga and Kuching Declaration came about to rectify Sabah\u2019s aspiration for change of the better,\u201d Chan said.<\/p>\n

Old Obstacles <\/strong><\/p>\n

In addition, there is the perennial issue of vote buying and coercion. \u201cVote buying is rampant in Sabah. Even the relatively affluent Kota Kinabalu residents are being offered goodies such as 1Malaysia Pads. But they are well-informed; their votes are still with us,\u201d Jimmy said<\/p>\n

\u201cI have received information that in the previous GE, BN had spent around RM 1 million for each state seat to campaign. This time the figure is expected to reach RM 10 million per seat.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIn their zeal to dish out goodies, corruption is going on. For example the 1Malaysia water tanks. The tanks cost around RM 400-500 each in open market procurement; yet the government is buying at several times that price. Who gets the difference? Cronies,\u201d Jimmy added.<\/p>\n

\u201cVoters are coerced into voting certain parties by threatening those who have family members who are working in the civil service or on scholarship. This is especially prevalent amongst the native voters,\u201d Bosi added.<\/p>\n

Despite the onslaught, the people\u2019s positive respond for PR is growing. \u201cNowadays, we are seeing enthusiastic turnouts in PR\u2019s ceramahs and functions. DAP registered a record attendance in a ceramah dinner in Sandakan in September where we collected a record of RM 60,000 in donations.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, I must caution that big turnouts may not translate into votes as we saw in the Batu Sapi by-election in November 2010. Perhaps some enjoyed the ceramahs for the entertainment value,\u201d Bosi chipped in.<\/p>\n

Wildcards in the Pack \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

As Sabah is the battleground and kingmaker in the next general election, BN is fighting for its life to retain the seats in Sabah. Opinion surveys show that the Chinese and KDM voters are leaning towards PR. The accompanying table shows the seats that PR has the best chances for electoral victories at the parliamentary level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Comparison Results for Selected Parliamentary Seats<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

Seat<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0No of voters <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0Number of votes <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0BN <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0PR <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Majority<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0Turnout
\n(%) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Kota Marudu<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 31,938<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12,028<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7,830<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4,198<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 69.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Kota Belud<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 43,071<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17,842<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14,822<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3,020<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 78.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Tuaran<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 40,761<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17,645<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11,023<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6,622<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 74.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Sepanggar<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 39,251<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 16,884<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5,423<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5,423<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 68.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Kota Kinabalu<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 43,714<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8,420<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9,464<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,044<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 64.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Penampang<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 35,281<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 13,400<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10,337<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3,063<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 70.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Beaufort<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 26,788<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14,780<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10,914<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10,914<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 72.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Ranau<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 30,810<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14,074<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6,823<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a07,251<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 72.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Keningau<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 35,578<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14,958<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10,334<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4,624<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 74.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Tenom<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 20,874<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9,535<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,652<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6,883<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 75.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Pensiangan*<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 19,712<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0–<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0–<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0–<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0–<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Sandakan<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 32,847<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8,297<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8,121<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 176<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 61.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Tawau<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 42,560<\/td>\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 13,943<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9,076<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4,867<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 63.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

* BN won without contest in the 2008 GE<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

How many seats can PR realistically win? \u201cWe have good prospects in 14 parliamentary seats including Labuan. We are targeting to deliver eight seats; in the other four seats, BN has the slight advantage,\u201d Jimmy explains.Besides the PR parties (PAS, PKR, DAP), Sabah\u2019s political situation is complicated by the presence of PR-friendly parties (APS, PPS) and Sabah-centric parties (SAPP, STAR).<\/p>\n

In particular the SAPP and STAR\u2019s Sabah-centric agenda is muddling the scene.\u201cSabah people who want enduring change for the better, need to choose a national or peninsular-based opposition party to overcome this BN juggernaut and establish a two-party system in the country,\u201d Chan explains.<\/p>\n

\u201cSabah-centric parties who try to form state government on their own will not survive the federal government onslaught and its political machination. In the past the BN federal government has used all means, fair and foul to marginalise Sabah,\u201d<\/p>\n

Jimmy added.\u201cAt the state level, BN is still dominant; it will be challenging for us to unseat BN at this juncture. Our main aim is to contribute the parliamentary seats at the federal level in order to win Putrajaya.\u201d\u201cIn order to ensure a one-to-one fight in all the winnable seats, we are working to resolve the issues with all the other parties.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIf PR forms government in Putrajaya, the BN state government will not last long as the past corruption cases weighing on the state leaders will catch up with them. They will be brought to justice.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Native Inroads<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

DAP\u2019s attempt to attract native citizen\u2019s support in Sabah is showing encouraging progress. According to DAP state organising secretary Jeffrey Kumin, Sabah DAP now has more than 30 percent native citizens in its party membership roll. Seven of its 20 state committee members are native. Both are the highest figures of its kind for DAP throughout Malaysia.<\/p>\n

\u201cDAP has witnessed a big growth of KDM members in its ranks the last few years. We have natives holding important positions such as state secretary and organising secretary. In Sabah, BN can\u2019t pin us as a Chinese-based party,\u201d Jimmy enthused.\u201cDAP is emerging as the party of recognition and choice of the natives. It\u2019s a sign that the natives want an alternative party that will fight for them.\u201dHow did DAP gained such acceptance with the natives in Sabah?<\/p>\n

\u201cFor years, DAP was maligned as a Chinese and Peninsular party to be avoided by Sabah people,\u201d Bosi said.\u201cIn the PBS days (1985-1994), many of the KDMs, including myself were hoodwinked into believing Joseph Pairin Kitinggan was fighting for us. When PBS rejoined BN, it all came to light as to who were defending us. We didn\u2019t realise Kit Siang and DAP has been fighting for Sabah since the 1960s.\u201d – The Rocket<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sabah\u2019s penchant for political change in the past has not been lost on the observers. The slew of negative news for BN from the state lately has pundits busy predicting the casualties for BN here in the next general elections and its implication for nationwide political scenario. How many seats are in play here? Will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[260],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3678\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}