{"id":2469,"date":"2012-07-31T13:36:20","date_gmt":"2012-07-31T05:36:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/?p=2469"},"modified":"2012-07-31T13:41:32","modified_gmt":"2012-07-31T05:41:32","slug":"tsunami-from-the-south","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/tsunami-from-the-south\/","title":{"rendered":"Tsunami From The South"},"content":{"rendered":"

Four years on from March 2008, many Johor folks are ruing for their overdue political change. Is the BN\u2019s fixed deposit state in danger? The Rocket received a wide range of views, but one thing is certain, it\u2019s no longer business as usual for the ruling coalition.<\/em><\/p>\n

Shaking Ground <\/strong><\/p>\n

Since the 2008 general elections (GE) and BERSIH 3.0 rally, the political temperature throughout the country has kicked up several notches. Johor, which had comparatively missed out on the 2008 political quake, is buzzing with non-stop political campaigning, especially for PR.<\/p>\n

PR\u2019s ceramahs and events have been well attended. According to Skudai ADUN Dr Boo Cheng Hau, many of their ceramahs and fundraising dinners have seen very good turnouts.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn Taman Molek, we had a record 3,000 over people turning out for our fundraising dinner and also more than 2,000 people in our dinner events in Kulai and Batu Pahat, which is MCA party president Chua Soi Lek\u2019s hometown and stronghold.\u201d<\/p>\n

Not only has PR drawn the Chinese crowds, many Malays and Indians have been coming out too. \u201cIn the Malay-majority area of Pasir Gudang, we had a joint PR Merdeka Rakyat ceramah event that attracted more than 5,000 avid listeners in April,\u201d Boo grinned.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the BERSIH 3.0 protests held in Johor Bahru (JB) on 28 April, close to 10,000 protesters from various races came out for the rally, unheard of for Johor. Many were young people and also working in Singapore.\u201d<\/p>\n

Chinese first off the block<\/strong><\/p>\n

The enthusiasm is most discernible in the Chinese ground. Some media reports have circulated that internal BN polls show that up to 80 percent of the Chinese voters in Johor will support PR in the coming general election (GE).<\/p>\n

In the past Johor voters, typically the Chinese had a cautious voting preference, preferring a wait-and-see attitude of political change in other states.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>But now things have changed, Boo believes. \u201cWith the PR\u2019s honest and sterling performance in the states it runs, especially in Penang and Selangor, there is now less hesitation for them to tack on the wave of change,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the past the Chinese tended to vote opposition candidates as a protest votes against BN. This time they are looking at establishing a two-party system for the betterment of Malaysia.\u201d<\/p>\n

BN\u2019s favourite scare-mongering campaign seems to have little effect on the Chinese here. Despite incessantly harping on the Islamic state and hudud law issues during the Tenang by-elections, almost 70 percent of the Chinese voters supported the PAS candidate.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne must bear in mind that these are rural area voters with little access to Internet or alternative media; furthermore it is MCA\u2019s support heartland and Chua Soi Lek\u2019s former constituency. BN\u2019s slandering and bribing tactics is not working amongst the Chinese anymore.\u201d<\/p>\n

In part it is also due to the close cooperation amongst PR parties, especially PAS and DAP. \u201cDAP and PAS leaders have been working closely since the late 1990s. We have a good rapport with each other,\u201d he continued.<\/p>\n

Breaking Down The Numbers <\/strong><\/p>\n

Demographically, Johor is similar to Selangor. Johor has many mixed seats where no race dominates outright. Out of the 26 parliamentary seats, only five seats are 70 percent or more Malay-majority in nature.<\/p>\n

In the past, EC had gerrymandered the seats to be mixed in nature as BN had the upper hand in mixed seats then. In the last GE however, PR won the majority of the mixed seats, especially urban ones. That has sparked the buzz that PR will win more seats in Johor.<\/p>\n

\u201cCurrently we believe PR has a 45 percent chance of forming the state government here. BN\u2019s internal survey show at least 13 parliamentary seats in danger, with four to five listed as black seats,\u201d Boo said.<\/p>\n

Of interest are 14 urban and mixed parliamentary seats (click here to see table-Johor electorate analysis<\/a>). With a high percentage of non-Malays voters and internet and alternative media access (for the urban seats), PR\u2019s chances -on paper- are brighter there.<\/p>\n

\u201cUMNO is more concerned about its seats here than they are for their component parties\u2019 (MCA, Gerakan, MIC) seats. Johor is UMNO\u2019s birthplace; losing the state or more seats is a battering they can\u2019t afford as it may hasten a domino effect on the change of government,\u201d he elaborates.<\/p>\n

\u201cBefore 2008, PR only had two state seats in Selangor. Right now in Johor, we have six DUN representatives. That stands well for PR.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWith the ripening political conditions, beginning with Chinese vote change, we may even witness the political tsunami beginning from Johor. I am optimistic for our future.\u201d<\/p>\n

Norman Fernandez, Johor DAP state deputy chairman, however takes a cautious stance. \u201cIt will be tough to form the state government, but we are confident of winning more seats.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fernandez sketches the factors that may affect the outcome for PR. \u201cThe presence of young and new voters is a wildcard for Johor and Malaysia as well. An estimated 25 percent of the electorate will be voting for the first time in the next GE.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThose working overseas especially in Singapore have different voting perspective as a result of the Singapore general election (GE) last year. BN, especially UMNO is worried about its seats here. It\u2019s no coincidence we are seeing disruption to PR\u2019s ceramahs.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, there is no substitute for hard work. Bakri MP Er Teck Hwa tells how he is slowly winning over DAP\u2019s bane, the Malay electorate, with dedicated effort.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn Bukit Naning where there\u2019s nary a Chinese in sight, I often mingled with the Malay villagers personally to win their acceptance. With the Malays one can\u2019t put up airs or just give ceramahs and expect the votes to come in.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have to bring the issues down to their level of comprehension. We can\u2019t just lecture them on national corruption issues and expect reformasi; when we start relating how these corruption issues affect their daily lives, they begin to understand.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIn addition I often don\u2019t wear a DAP t-shirt so as not to intimidate them. It makes it easier for us to mingle with them,\u201d Er narrates.<\/p>\n

Guarding Against Overconfidence <\/strong><\/p>\n

For all the hype that PR is set to win more seats here, it\u2019s premature to speak of occupying Nusajaya and Putrajaya. PR needs to guard against hubris.<\/p>\n

\u201cPR won many seats in the 2008 GE due to external factors. We were not the draw card; the people were angry with BN then. We shouldn\u2019t be wasting this opportunity harping on non-issues,\u201d Fernandez cautioned.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs a multi-racial and ideology-based coalition, PR has traversed a long way to come up with a common platform and Buku Jingga in presenting ourselves to the electorate.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cHudud is not one of those promises; let\u2019s not detract the voters on that issue. Likewise for the issue of non-Malay appointment as prime minister; political reality dictates that as the Malays are the majority race in this country, a PM should be from their ranks,\u201d he opined.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll PR parties should refrain from making unilateral pronouncements and indulging in petty squabbles hoping to rouse our hard-core supporters but we wind up alienating the middle and swing voters.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cOne of the major obstacles we need to beware of is overconfidence. Previous attempts by opposition parties to coalesce and form a united front to challenge BN has floundered on the party leaders\u2019 overconfidence and inability to gauge their party strengths.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018We have to be aware of the undercurrents in the electorate\u2019s perception of each party\u2019s image and appeal. In other words, we have to be honest with and inform each other of \u2018no-go\u2019 areas. Our biggest enemies are ourselves, not BN,\u201d he forewarned.<\/p>\n

Ready For Nusajaya? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Is PR ready for power in Johor? Fernandez believes there are two major concerns. \u201cThe state finances are in shambles. We don\u2019t know how much cash will be left available for PR to execute our programs.<\/p>\n

\u201cSecondly, in the event PR wins power, will BN abide by the people\u2019s verdict? Even as the PR state governments were being sworn-in in Penang, Perak and Selangor in 2008, government documents were blatantly removed or destroyed,\u201d Fernandez elaborated.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere were also sabotage efforts by some of the state civil force in these states. Will worse happen in Johor, i.e. will physical violence even be attempted by the losing side to retain power?\u201d<\/p>\n

Boo assured us that PR will be organising and bolstering volunteer squads to monitor the state government departments\u2019 documents and assets and provide physical security for PR elected representatives and leaders. DAP will be organising its volunteer squad soon.<\/p>\n

\u201cUltimately the only safeguard measures we have are the people themselves. Will they want the next government to succeed? If they love this state and country dearly, how much will they labour to protect their elected government?\u201d Fernandez asked.<\/p>\n

Charting New Ground<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the coming GE PAS has acceded the Tenggaroh state seat to DAP to contest. Located in the east central side of Johor, it is a Malay majority rural seat with a large number of FELDA settlers. PR\u2019s resolve to be a genuine multi-racial coalition takes a step further as DAP makes an effort to contest in a non-traditional area.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have set up a branch nearby the area to facilitate the constituents there. The voters there are warming up to PR. We held a ceramah in a Chinese temple the nearby Endau town recently, close to 3,000 people, mostly Malays turned up to listen,\u201d Boo shared.<\/p>\n

\u201cDAP appreciates PAS for helping us in presenting a more Malaysian outlook. Winning or losing the seat is secondary; it will help PR bolster our multi-racial image,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

As for the machinery issue, Fernandez says that the population around Tenggaroh are generally enthusiastic about PR and DAP in particular. \u201cWe believe the machinery issue can be resolved as most of the volunteers will enlist closer to the GE.\u201d<\/p>\n

On tackling the Malay ground, he says the candidate must think like a Malaysian and converse fluently in Bahasa Malaysia. \u201cThe Malay voters need personal touch and constant approaches; once they are convinced of the candidate they will stay with him through thick and thin.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Four years on from March 2008, many Johor folks are ruing for their overdue political change. Is the BN\u2019s fixed deposit state in danger? The Rocket received a wide range of views, but one thing is certain, it\u2019s no longer business as usual for the ruling coalition. Shaking Ground Since the 2008 general elections (GE) […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2478,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cover-story"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2469"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2469\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.therocket.com.my\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}