By Teresa Kok, Seputeh MP

4 days before the Teluk Intan by election polling day, DAP MP for Serdang Dr Ong Kian Ming in his statement published his analysis of the possible outcome of the by election.

He emphasised that turn out would be the key determining if DAP candidate Dyana Sofya could win the by election.

Ong has said:-

“If voters feel unmotivated to turn out, as was the case for the Bukit Gelugor by-election, and turnout falls below 65 percent, DAP will almost certainly lose this seat.

If turnout is at 70 percent or more, then the chances for the voters of Teluk Intan to have a young, energetic and idealistic Member of Parliament will be bright”.

In the 2013 General Election held last year, the turn out rate was 80.6 % whereas it was 70 % in 2008 General Election. Throughout the campaign, DAP again and again called on outstation voters to return to vote while Gerakan candidate Mah told the local voters not to let outstation voters decide the poll outcome.

We were most worried when polling closed at five on May 31 and the Election Commission announced that the turnout was less than 70%. The final turnout rate of 67.4% caused Dyana Sofya to lose to Mah Siew Keong by a majority of 263 votes.

I have no doubt whatsoever that Dyana Sofya would emerge victorious if the turnout rate was higher.

While in depth post mortem needs to be conducted to analyse the results, especially the DAP’s decreased support among the Chinese and Indian voters, equal emphasis must be given to analyse the causes of the lower turnout rate .

The analysis should comprise two aspects, firstly to determine if the lower rate also involved resident voters, and not just outstation voters.

The second aspect will be to determine the causes for this turn out rate especially among the outstation voters as it was clear that they formed the bulk of the people who did not return to vote.

Many factors have been cited in news reports as to why there was a lower turn out from outstation voters and they include:-

1. The ubah factor was missing in a by election
2. Some voters believed or were misled to believe that DAP was sure to win without their votes
3. Some voters have become disillusioned by politics in general or Opposition politics. If so, why?
4. Some voters have planned their overseas holidays earlier as the polling day fell during school holidays.

There is no doubt that outstation voters who returned to vote in the last general election had helped cause unprecedented higher turnout rates in many constituencies and resulted in higher majorities and number of Parliament and State seats won by Pakatan Rakyat.

Great attention must therefore be given to the phenomenon of lower turn out rate in the Teluk Intan by election.