Move Beyond Daily Number of COVID19 Positive Cases – Focus on % of positive cases, the Number and % of Serious Cases, ICU admissions and capacity and number of deaths
Yesterday, the country experienced a new high of 13215 in terms of the number of COVID19 cases detected. While this number would have caused great alarm among most Malaysians, it is important to interpret these numbers in the proper context.
More testing will detect more positive cases and with the proper SOPs, this will help contain the spread of the virus. Moving forward, there is an urgent need to shift away from looking at the total number of daily COVID19 cases but instead focus on more specific and relevant figures including % of positive cases, number and % of serious cases, ICU admissions and capacity and number of deaths.
With the focus on the right set of figures, there is hope for a gradual re-opening of various economic sectors safely and responsibly even if the number of cases remain high.
What is important is that the number of serious cases and the number of deaths, especially among the vaccinated population, is very low. This has allowed the UK economy to re-open even while the number of new COVID19 cases remain relatively high.
A record number of tests – 134,569 – were conducted in Malaysia in the 24 hours leading up to the COVID19 positive daily figures released yesterday. While the % positive rate remains high at 9.8%, the approach towards more testing is the right one to take as this will allow for the identification of more COVID19 positive patients so that they can be asked to quarantine at home (for the non-serious cases) or admitted to a hospital (for the more serious cases).
What is also important to note is that 96% of the COVID19 positive cases involved those with either no symptoms (60.9%) or mild symptoms (35.1%). Patients in both these categories are asked to quarantine at home. Of course, this still means that there are 531 cases which are in Category 3 (Symptomatic Patients with Lung Infection), Category 4 (Needing Oxygen Supplementation) and Category 5 (Critical Patients with Multiple Organ Complications). But 531 cases seems much less ‘scary’ to the public than 13,215 cases and it actually presents a more accurate picture of the impact of COVID19 patients on the health care system.
As of the 14th of July, 12.65 million doses have been administered representing 36% (First dose) and 17% (Two doses) of the adult population. It is expected that all residents who have registered for the vaccine in the Klang Valley will receive their first dose by the 1st of August (not including undocumented migrants) and be fully vaccinated by the end of August.
As the number of vaccinations continues to increase, the number of cases should come down. During this time of transition, we need to move away from focusing on the number of total daily cases. Instead, the public should be educated to shift their attention to the more important and relevant indicators such as the number of serious cases (Category 3 to 5), the number of COVID19 related deaths and the ICU capacity.
In addition, any decision by the NSC for any sector of the economy to remain closed has to be based on science and data, NOT on unsubstantiated speculation and fears on where clusters “may” develop e.g. in shopping malls or in gyms.
Ong Kian Ming
MP for Bangi